With the commercials at their largest net short position in the indexes ever this makes this rally unlikely to last too much longer. It is being pushed by the PPT in futures, which has translated into stock arbitrage and combining that with the seasonal tendency, has gotten this little counter trend rally going. I do not believe it can last much longer, mid Jan is about as long as I think it can go, but doubt it goes on for that long. I would only change my mind on this if I found out my gay little stalker friend in here who just reappeared from under his rock was bearish, that would make me bullish.
If those lows get taken out we will be at 5500 in the Dow in a flash. I also have a hard time imagining how employment can increase with everything that is happening. 10% national rate certainly seems possible, although I doubt we get that high, but 8 to 8.5 seems likely. I also agree that the last several years were a mirage, and this needs to be fully unwound. How trillions of government spending and higher taxes on those that have money can solve this is beyond me.
I am bullish on the dollar over the next few years due to long term cycle analysis, and am gearing up to buy this dip any day now, especially now that I see the commercials buying it last week. I also think Gold continues in it’s downtrend for awhile, the seasonal peak on average is January, so a rally into the end of the year sets up a wonderful short sale opportunity in that market, however I could re-short that any day between now and then depending on the patterns. These really high gold predictions are being made by everyone I have heard talk about it, which makes me think that is why it won’t happen.
I have never seen a trade with nobody on the other side of it work in my 25 years of trading. Also, all the selling of GOld coins and pushing of that by the investment community seems very similar to the RE push in 2005, you just can’t lose doing this etc.. I traded through a 20 year Bear market in the metals during which time we had several bad economic cycles that did not rally the metals. However, I look at the next few months in trades, not years, so I am not a great predictor of prices several years down the road, no interest in that. The fundamentals I watch are bearish for the next few months, and that is my focus.
As always, I could be wrong and that is what stops are for.
