Why were Californians (government and people) so focused on whining about open beaches and parks early in the lockdown? Maybe if they had allowed more outdoor recreation opportunities, there wouldn’t have been such a clamor to reopen indoor venues as quickly as possible. There wasn’t good science in favor of outdoor transmission … it looks like the Northeastern model (not much enforcement of outdoor activity, slow, data-driven reopening of indoor activity) is basically vindicated. Also, we’re serious about masks — not sure how serious people in CA are.
Then again, we much have just been lucky or unlucky — maybe our cities got hit hard enough to create 20-30% immunity. If base R0 is 3.0, that would cut it to about 2 or 2.4 (assuming everyone is equally susceptible and likely to spread it, which may not be the case). Another 50-60% reduction in infectivity from mask use and better hygiene should do the job of lowering R to around 1. Combine this with test-and-trace, and it’s much easier to stay below 1 with 20-30% immunity than with 0-10%.
ocrenter: speaking of quarantine, I’d really support requiring airlines to ask for proof of a recent negative (last 48-72 hours, no older) COVID swab before boarding passengers for Northeastern airports, as well as requiring quarantine. The majority of cases in places like NJ are starting to be from imported outbreaks, and most of the hotspots aren’t within easy driving/train/bus distance.
We could even randomly check car passengers for proof of recent test and quarantine plans … there’s precedent in the US for this. California has ag inspection stations at its borders to prevent importation of dangerous parasites. A virus is essentially a dangerous, microscopic parasite.
