What would really be great is a report by zipcode of the number of ARM loans and month/year of reset.
Kicked this around a little bit at the meet up. Realistically, people thought it would be nearly impossible to get at this data – rather, more reasonable to see what happens on the back side: month per month, look at the lagging indicators (which I think sdrealtor is doing by tracking short sales stats each monday)to some degree.
The banks have their own data on this and I’m sure they have connected the dots and are positioning themselves as best they can (banks that ended up holding the loans, not
the banks that merely originated them.)
But, back to my imaginary report. If we could see the monthly/annual ARM reset data by zipcode, we could really do a good job in assessing the trends. So, the degree to which ARM resets affect realestate prices, would be the degree to which a report like this would be valuable.
1) For example, with the resets taking place, let’s say in Jan 07 in any/all zipcodes, watch the number of homes going up for sale, watch the number of shorts/foreclosures, continue tracking the pricing trends. In the first month, one wouldn’t expect much change – it takes time to react to a loan reset.
2) After watching this for 6 months, some trends might emerge. 12, 18, 24 months, even more.
3) For those bubble sitters like me who have a zipcode preference for eventually buying a place, we could watch the progress. If the zipcode for whatever reason was at or above the typical ARM saturation, then one might anticipate more downward price pressure. Or, conversely if the ARM saturatation in one’s dream zipcode was unusually low, then you might either accept that you’ll pay closer to the higher end of the scale for a property – or the cost may price you out and force you into your next more desireable zipcode.
4) As both the banking industry and the government are looking at the effects of allowing exotic loans onto the market, detailed monitoring and assessment of ARM loans and the like may help them to determine if the short term benefits the Mortgage folks appreciate are worth the long term suffering of: fearless homebuyers, RE industry, builders, banking industry, retail industry, and everyone else who might suffer if a realestate-induced recession takes place.
By the way, if the government creates this data, aren’t they obligated to make it public?
From an individual perspective, point 3 would benefit people who don’t want to repeat the sins of their fathers/mothers. Point 4 would provide some postmordem data to help the industry keep itself out of trouble in the future, unless the industry doesn’t particularly want to.
But anyway, I know that the data may not be available, but Christmas is just around the corner and you never know what St. Nick might surprise us with…..
