What percentage of the San Diego population meet the criteria for this group that you describe?
The median family income, according to the 2004 Census Bureau is $51K. My bet is that for every vulture with $500K saved up, there are 300,000 people below the median wage scared to death of their ARM, HELOC, and credit card payments going up.
Since you are into anecdotes too (like me), next time you go to the gas station, walk by all the pumps and see how many people filled up. Then, go to the mall and see how full it is, and how many people walk around without any shopping bags.
One more thought: the housing prices are set by the solds. In July, it was 2500 or so solds in San Diego that set the prices for the other hundreds of thousands of homes. The people who NEED to sell are setting the price for everyone.
Oh, and one last thought: after foreclosures really pick up, Fannie Mae underwriting guidelines tighten, and the FDIC puts rules in exotic financing, the tighter credit will make it harder to buy a home. Buyer fear will reduce sales even more. Who will even want to buy a home next year? As buyer fear increases, the buyer pool shrinks. Your vulture friends, like us here, will wait even longer – they will think “Hey, why buy now when prices are dropping so fast – let me wait until next quarter and see if they have stabilized”. Fear works in reverse of frenzy. On the way up, sales accelerate and on the way down they decelerate. There is not sucker’s rally as in stocks. Just fear that grows.
