Well, with the new poll I

[utcsox]

Well, with the new poll I posted above, RCP has Trump up about 4 percent in Indiana. The lead might actually be bigger if you discard the outliner that had Cruz up by 16. I think 538 do add more weight on later polls and higher quality polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/in/indiana_republican_presidential_primary-5786.html