One of my favorite indicators is the the Household Debt Service and Financial Obligations Ratios put out quarterly by the Federal Reserve Board. It shows the ratio of debt payments to disposable personal income.
Over time this tends to show the consumer’s sentiment towards debt. Here on the West Coast where real estate is very debt driven (since most of us have to take out loans to purchase a home) this ratio looks to be at least coincident with housing booms and busts, and sometimes leads by a few years.
