Well I am not quite J6P nor a moron. I am a master of self-deprecation. =) I am an educated technologist and my expertise is in the flow of electrons not the flow of capital.
To your “seriousness” question, I have been leaning toward metals for the past three years. Today I am suffering from procrastination induced remorse and based on the points I laid out in the original post it seems to me that things can only go down from here. After all, the fed cannot ratchet rates down much lower and any movement they make only devalues the greenback even more. Gold in the 900s and oil dancing back and forth around $110 may be the peak to some but if all forces are considered (geopolitical, market/credit, subprime, commodity/resource constraints) the future appears quite likely to go even deeper into the abyss.
(note: my real niche talent is systemic analysis and on some levels there is not much difference between micro and macro systems, cause and effect, electrons, people, etc)
The only brass ring I can see for the dollar and American economy is that a pummeled dollar makes us a prime candidate for manufacturing and exporting. That may happen in time but it would take a fair amount of time (2-4 years) to revive our domestic manufacturing infrastructure that has been eviscerated by China. For some industries domestic manufacturing and exportation would not even help due to the fact that some industries depend on materials that are controlled globally to artificially maintain price parity between the Americas, Asia and Europe.
In those 2-4 years we Americans would face stagflation and a dollar swirling around the drain. By that time, the insiders would have already made the move to low risk investments like metals, foreign money markets, etc.
The real concern of J6P and non-finance people like me is the risk of being the straw man. The group of small investors that holds up the market while the insiders slide out from under. If things are really going to take a bigger nose dive in the next 3-9 months my family would appreciate it if I moved out from under before everything pops.
Make sense?
I keep waiting for someone to point out a variable that I have not considered or a basic concept I do not understand but so far that hasn’t happened.
I know I am being “glass if half full” but as one of my favorite bumper sticker slogans goes “Just because I am paranoid does not mean they are not following me”. That was another attempt at levity.
Seriously, where is the border between cynicism and realism?
