Watch the 10 year treasury yield. Then tack on a premium for the risk aversion of the secondary market.
If we have a recession or stay in the same economic strata of not giving a crap about how far the dollar craters then rates should stay in a narrow range. If we actually take action to try to deal with our outlandish deficit and regain some sort of respect for our currency then rates will go up. Given our spinelessness of those who forge economic policy I would bet on the former rather then the latter.
