vrundy – I like your post, but I don’t think #3 will be a real problem. I’m a believer in free markets and the ingenuity of entrepreneurs both in America and abroad. Plus, it is a problem that we see coming. Kind of like the Millenium bug, it could be a big problem if we didn’t realize it is coming, but we see it coming and we’ll be ready when necessary. Entrepreneurs will invent and market things that allow us to live without oil, and people will learn to live without things that require oil. People are remarkably adaptive, I believe.
I also think the “running out of oil” condition is farther off than the next 15 years. This is a pretty neat link that shows, in terms of gold, oil is not really skyrocketing as one would expect in the “end of oil” times.
