Very nice post. jg I think that anytime you can present raw data to a speculative subject then I feel you are adding levity and value. While I do agree with the premise that trying to find the exact bottom is tough, I think that your basics are very strong. Waiting for the total number of sales to level off makes sense to all of us. The unknown to all of us (or at least myself) is the lag time for pricing. As far as I know your post is the first one I have seen that attempts to use the hard data.
My non scientific method for purchasing the much needed larger home that my family is pressing me to buy will be as follows:
– wait for total sales to level off and stop decreasing
– wait for inventory to level off and stop increasing
– pray I can hold my family off until then
While I know I may be taking some pricing risk I think the downside will be seriously minimized if the first two factors are in place.
