Unfortunately for housing bulls, realty is not a coin tossing game. If it were, you’d have a 50-50 chance of a soft landing.
But if you want to use statistics, I’ll give it a 99% probability of resales continuing their slide.
Demand for homes is reduced by 25%, and builders have responded by reducing their supply. But that won’t help the resale market, as asianautica already explained. In addition, the resale market will keep adding to inventory, as people try to cash out, speculators get cold feet, and homeowners try to get out from adjusting mortgages. At the rate of 50/day, could we hit 40,000 homes on the MLS next spring?
Just curious, sdrealtor,what leading indicators are you following that give you hope for a flat, rather than declining market?
