“I generally use my facts and analysis on this board because I feel the “quality of clientèle” is better. If I try the logic approach to a member of the general public, it is often too much for them to handle and their eyes glaze over. They then grasp a one of the statements the RE hypers have used to counter. Sorry if I sound like Tanta or Calculated Risk…”
Which is a good thing. I am not in stark disagreement with your argument as I said before. In theory it makes perfect sense.
“I was also bringing in the fact that many of the non-savy buyers have already shot their wad… of cash to coin a phrase. They don’t have money to buy in now. The ones that have money to buy in are the savy buyers (who probably haven’t contacted a Realtor yet because they know this thing has legs in the downward direction) and wannabe savy who are fence sitters sitting on the edge of their seat.”
Which makes great sense to me… Uco I wish I could tell you where they come from (the buyers) but I don’t think we will ever see a disruption in the demand until we have a an event… what are they called? Black swan moments? Until we see engineers, biotech people, and the likes of the 150k salaries getting seriously disrupted, the supply lines for the 750k homes will stay pretty much intact. In fact I would say that to be regardless of this non conforming nonsense unless somehow the rates skyrocketed up. In my opinion we need a more substantial event then we have had to push 4S down to 470k or other wishful pricings like people have posted about. I think that in lieu of something like that we will have a very measured ride down over several years. Now contrary moves to subsidize the market, (I lump this move and other political bs in the same basket) are like you said, not even close to being intended to help anyone. They are intended to mask or delay the inevitable.
The fluff that NAR puts out, is to me, no different then the smell I deal with when I change the kids. I hold my nose, wipe em up, and throw the waste in the trash. Your explanation makes perfect sense and in no way do I disagree with the facts. Eventually one thinks, (at least I think) that it all catches up… it has to catch up doesn’t it? Yet I know to many people where this cut will make a difference. Will it push them into the market? Perhaps. Yet when has NAR ever said RE sucks? In a hot market they say buy now before you get priced out and in a p.o.s market they say buy now cuz it is a good deal.
Anyways no need for saying sorry if you sound link Tanta or Calculated Risk at all because I agree. Besides I lurk over there all the time and it all makes sense to me. Believe me what you and they say makes perfect sense to me. I used to not understand buyers psyche but I do now, I am just not good at explaining it.
