Wall Street Bond Trader says slow agonizing drop, with a few fits and spurts both up and down. He bases this on how long it took the Nasdaq to drop during the bust. Even though the market it mostly transparent and fungible, it took about 2 years to sort out. Since RE is not very transparent or fungible, it should take longer.
Econ Professor says that the increased availability of information has lead to market cycles that are faster and more shallow since. He says information asymmetry is declining.
If I knew nothing of the situation, which isn’t too hard to pretend, I would put my money with the trader. Real world usually has better incentives to be correct than academia.
