Tone, the sarcasm was an easy way to illustrate my point without typing several paragraphs. That point is that different areas, and different housing types will depreciate at different rates. Do you yourself really believe Solana Beach, Del Mar, Scripps, and neighborhoods where most of the people who post here will drop 20% in a matter of months?
Honestly, do you believe that?
Now can places like El Cajon, Eastlake, downtown condos, UTC condos drop 20% in a matter of months? Perhaps, or at least there is a higher probability.
I think that a rational statement would be,
“Locales that cater to buyers that traditionally relied upon riskier finance vehicles that are now not available will suffer substantially faster then previously thought. Furthermore locales that have substantial inventory that is distressed will indeed suffer more and will be prone to a “chunk downward”. Locales that have both of these factors have a very high probability of seeing tremendous depreciation in a short time. ”
To me, that is a more rational, way of stating the premise.
Indeed I think over time the decline will creep all over. However to me it is much harder to quantify how much and when.
