To summarize my thoughts on this matter from another thread, the problem starts with the lack of clarity by the author. He uses the term “at risk” but never puts a number to it. What does at risk mean? 10% chance of default? 50% chance of default?
Powayseller was trying to quantify this and made an assumption that was not agreeable to everyone. She assumed “at risk” meant 100% default, when we really have no idea what it means at all. I think we all made our own assumption, but powayseller voiced hers as fact.
