To see what will happen in MM one only need look north at San Marcos. Twenty Five years ago its was widely disparaged around North County locals. Then San Elijo Hills and some other smaller communities were built and the sea tide changed. Today San Marcos home prices for comparable homes arent all that different than Carlsbads.
It will take time as an mentioned but with a central location, relatively affordable homes, nice all usable lots common and proximity to UCSD, Medical centers and tech/life science job centers I only see one way for this to end.
Right now most homes are selling over $800k. At those prices the people moving in are not the same as the people moving out or most of the current residents.
There are about 25k housing units in MM. 60% of those are owner occupied so lets call that 15K.
This year about 800 homes will change ownership with close to 500 of those single family homes. Thats 3% turnover. Most of those were built in 70’s and 80’s so original owners hanging on have been there 40 to 50 years and will be aging out. Expect the pace of the turnover to accelerate. Throw in a few thousand new homes which will be magnets for even wealthier residents.
In 2030 years years, I beleive around 50% of the homes in MM will have different owners than they did in 2020. Incomes and education levels are rapidly rising along with that.
If I was a young couple starting out and thinking about starting a family MM would most certainly be on my radar
