Thoughtful post. Definitely against the tide here but alot of those against the tide posts make alot of sense as yours does.
Contrary to most people, I am not searching for a bottom of the market price, simply a price that I can afford for a given home/area/lot size. I don’t view a home as an asset. The home I bought in Talmadge in 2003 is already underwater but I didn’t buy it to make money on it. I bought in it to live in it. Even though we outgrew it and I rent it out now, I will hold onto it because we like the home. Now that is me an only me so that is okay. Most people here that post alot don’t feel that way at all which is okay. However more people here actually do feel that way, they just do not post as much. Still many many other posters have indeed purchased over the past year. Not one of them ever purchased and stated that they bought because they thought it was a market bottom.
I think you and I differ about our feelings regarding the magnitude of the depreciation when rates do move up but there is no way in the world I am going to wait. One way or another we will buy this year, the only question will be whether it is here in San Diego or whether it will be out of state. With that said, I have a hard time challenging your theory on the butterfly effect.
As far as foreclosures go… well… I am not a commercial guy and I honestly do not have the time to learn something else. Residential foreclosure market… yes I will stick with that because it has worked out pretty well for us. The margins are getting tighter but there is still room to make a little money. I do think there is great opportunity in commercial which is what you are implying.
