Though I agree oil/energy is and will continue to be a problem, I take issue with all the peak-oil gloom and doom.
The very simplified “Peak oil” predictions all assume that there is a somewhat fixed amount of oil ready to be pumped, but that is not true. Even ignoring future discoveries, the amount of oil that can be pumped depends on the price of oil. As the value of oil increases, it becomes more feasible to pump out the hard-to-get (and thus more expensive) stuff. Also, it becomes more attractive to refine the high-sulfur petroleum–again, since this stuff is harder to refine, it is more expensive. The available oil in the Hubbert curve assumes that only a fraction of the oil is gettable–OK that is not really a word…
Somewhat perversely, high oil prices makes more oil accessible–not what the greenies had hoped, I expect. Maybe they should spend a little more time in science class and less time reading Chomsky. ;^)
Last I checked, $120 oil makes wind economically practical–don’t recall the number for solar. I think it might be around $75 in the SW and $150 in the NE, but I’m not sure. I do know that a commercial solar concentrator is going on-line soon in the SW (Arizona, I think)–something Junction… that will be interesting.
Either way, it’s sure to kick the crap out of the long distance commuter–probably good for everyone, in the long run. Short run… well that’s gonna suck for them.
