This was on the front page of the LA times this morning. The thing that comes to my mind is the timing of the article in the face of a rapidly deteriorating California housing market. This definitely plays into, they are not making any more land meme.
“Other demographers argue that the huge population increase the state predicts will occur only if officials complete major improvements to roads and other public infrastructure. Without that investment, they say, some Californians would flee the state.
If the finance department’s calculations hold, California’s population will rise from 34.1 million in 2000 to 59.5 million at the mid-century point, about the same number of people as Italy has today.
And its projected growth rate in those 50 years will outstrip the national rate — nearly 75% compared with less than 50% projected by the federal government. That could translate to increased political clout in Washington, D.C.
Southern California’s population is projected to grow at a rate of more than 60%, according to the new state figures, reaching 31.6 million by mid-century. That’s an increase of 12.1 million over just seven counties.
L.A. County alone will top 13 million by 2050, an increase of almost 3.5 million residents. And Riverside County — long among the fastest-growing in the state — will triple in population to 4.7 million by mid-century.
Riverside County will add 3.1 million people, according to the new state figures, eclipsing Orange and San Diego to become the second most populous in the state. With less expensive housing than the coast, Riverside County has grown by more than 472,000 residents since 2000, according to state estimates.
But many residents face agonizingly long commutes to work in other areas. And Monday, the state’s growth projections raised some concerns in the Inland Empire.
Registered nurse Fifi Bo moved from Los Angeles to Corona nine years ago so she could buy a house and avoid urban congestion. But she’d consider moving even farther east now that Riverside County is grappling with its own crowding problems.
“But where am I going? People used to move to Victorville, but [housing prices in] Victorville already got high,” the 36-year-old said as she fretted about traffic and smog and public services stretched thin. “We don’t know where to go. Maybe Arizona.”
This article barely touched on the fact that we are already seeing a net domestic out migration, housing sales have slowed to a trickle and look at the U-Haul rates leaving the state verses coming in.
I could be wrong but my gut tells me this article was designed to put fear in potential buyers heart that if you don’t buy now you will be priced out forever, look at the population growth heading your way.
I remember hearing Chris Thornberg say in one of his lectures that the housing shortage of California is very misunderstood. There is a shortage of multi-tenet housing in the state, this is an immigration issue, these people could not afford a home in Birmingham Alabama much less Los Angeles CA. Right now there is no shortage of bubble priced SFR’s in So Cal in fact there appears to be an over supply.
