There is a flaw to every single point on your list.
Nothing moves as a group. Some people will rent, some will move out forever, and some will stay temp. with families or friends. Not all the construction jobs will be newly created. They may be construction jobs that would’ve got eliminated when other jobs ended. All the homes will not be rebuilt at the same time. There are some homes from the Cedar Fire that have yet to be built for one reason or another. The owners may decide to sell the lot, and the lot may be left empty until the market for raw land picks up again. The new house blueprints may be caught in new zoning laws or codes, and be delayed.
The rental market is not tight right now!. Every investor that can hold out “until the market returns” is trying to rent their units. Besides, the rents would have to double to make sense at “today’s” pricing.
Sorry, but 1700 homes (less than the Cedar Fire) will have spot benefits for rentals (that never would’ve found a renter until it was given back to the bank), and some added construction jobs, even a spurt of new and existing homes sales (after the insurance checks are cut), in the general Rancho and Escondido area, but basically, the market will rebound when pricing meets affordability. 1700 hundred families, even in one big chunk cannot change the housing market downward spiral in San Diego, and anyone who thinks so has no idea about human nature. People never move at the same speeds in the same direction.
