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Theorem: Santorum or Gingrich, and probably both, have to drop out for RP to have a snowball’s chance in hell at getting the Rep nom.
Proof:
Total Republican Delegates: 2286
Total Unbound Delegates: 500
Total Bound Delegates: 1786
Total needed to win: 1144
In order to reach 1144 delegates, he would need 36% of the bound delegates and *every single one* of the unbound delegates!
Every single one! And 36% of the rest!
Good luck with that.
Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012
