The upper 20% of the income earners are still spending, and supporting the rest of the economy. You think if these 20% people get hit, that the remaining 80% will be in any better shape then they are now? I don't. It's going to hit them even harder.
Well, to be fair, saying that the rich will be doing better than the poor in bad times is kind of like saying San Diego is sunny…
Still, point taken.
I actually meant this for the comment, quote:
Give Carmel Valley some time. Sooner or later businesses will start leaving San Diego because they cannot attract talent here due to high cost of living. Then all of a sudden someone who was comfy in CV in a 4000 sqft making 200k a year is out of a job looking to move.
Implied here is that when most of the 200k people have a forced mass exodus, because businesses will start leaving, you'll be able to step right in and pick up property pennies on the dollar.
I don't disagree that there will be a correction. BUT…Let's be realistic. If there is a mass job loss from your high wage earner across the board, and they can't find work here and have to leave, how will own situation be relative to these folks?
Either
1) You make a lot more than these people.
or
2) You make nearly the same as these folks, didn't lose your job, and haven't already bought, and have saved enough.
or
3) You make much less then these folks, but miraculously didn't lose your job and have saved a lot more than these folks to weather the storm.
#1 folks can take advantage of this situation if it happens, because of the economic pecking order…But, I would say you aren't in category #1 if you are complaining about affordability. You would say things are irrational and ridiculous.
#2 folks: Ok. So in this case, I would consider two situations.
2a) If you believe the high-income profession is diversified in SD:Yes, it is possible for a subset of high-wage earning profession to experience job loss. The lose of a group will bring some price pressure, but there would be plenty of other professions still getting paid. I have trouble with the pennies on the dollar theory, because other folks in from other high wage professions which are are arguably in better shape then #3 folks would definitely scope up the bargain before #3 folks. If 3000sqft CV homes were around 400k-500k, I would pick up one, my relatives would probably pick up a couple of vacation homes, and my wife's relatives in china would probably do the same.
2b) If you believe the high-income profession isn't diversified in SD and most get wiped out together. OK. Let's face it, in this case most people who are these high wage earners would have similar professions and/or skill sets. A limited of #2 folks can differentiate yourself from others, but for most of us, we aren't really that much different from our pears. So if your peers are going to find it difficult look for employment here, so will you. This is what I refer to as being mutually screwed.
Personally, I think the demographics in SD are #2a, and not #2b (unlike the bay area). That's why when you saw the dot com explode, you didn't have a massive issue here in SD, while you did in the bay area.
#3 folks: Well anyway, let's assume #2 folks across the board gets wiped out. I'm trying to have a hard time understanding how mass job losses at this scale in the high income earners won't have significant impact in lower income earners. The economy isn't independent. High wage earners lose job and move==> less spending elsewhere here ==> everyone in retail also at least equally affected. Less people paying taxes ==>city/local/gov/teachers/and every other public workers also at least equally screwed.
Again, not saying things aren't going to come down. Or that theres not opportunity ahead. But lets be realistic here. Generally, people that make more/save more can weather storms better.
