The statistics that are quoted for returns in the stock market are from the same people that sell mutual funds. Your after-tax, after-inflation returns are likely to be much less than is quoted from the mutual fund advertising.
Your real rate of return is more likely to look like 7% than 10% of anything. A complete market cycle should be from the years 1966 to 2000.
Another thing to remember is that this period has a preponderance of years when oil or energy was cheap and the US manufacturing base was not competing with China or India. Future returns in US markets are likely to be lower than the last 4 decades of the American Century.
