[quote=The-Shoveler]IMO economic effects of Covid-19 lock down will likely kill more people world wide (mostly in poor countries) than the virus itself.
Unless it ends quickly anyway.[/quote]
Maybe, maybe not. But that really isn’t the question.
You have to consider how many people would have died without the lockdown, not just how many will die with the lockdown.
You also have to consider the economic damage of an unchecked virus.
The question isn’t “will the economic effects of a lockdown kill more people than the virus will kill in a lockdown situation.”
The question is, “would the deaths plus economic damage caused by an unchecked coronavirus be worse than the deaths plus economic damage caused by the lockdown plus the virus in a lockdown situation?”
Economists will generally tell you the answer is yes. In fact, they think that just the economic damage alone would be worse from an unchecked virus than from a lockdown.
The IGM Economic Experts Panel’s latest survey of top US macroeconomists asked for their view of the statement “Abandoning severe lockdowns at a time when the likelihood of a resurgence in infections remains high will lead to greater total economic damage than sustaining the lockdowns to eliminate the resurgence risk”. Eighty per cent of the panel agreed, the rest were uncertain or did not respond. Not a single expert disagreed.
