We are no where near an over supply of housing like we had in 2008 after years of over building.
Note: And no, I am not saying I think we are going into a downturn.
Housing in previous recessions
It’s somewhat counter-intuitive, but recessions don’t necessarily mean bad things for the housing market. In fact, they usually don’t.
ATTOM Data Solutions, a leading real estate data provider,
looked at home prices during the five recessions since 1980 and found that only twice—in 1990 and 2008—did home prices come down during the recession,
and in 1990 it was by less than a percent. During the other three, prices actually went up.[/quote]
+1
Macroeconomic issues do not necessarily translate into microeconomic San Diego specific concerns. I would even say economic concerns in Northern California tech concentrated industry do not directly translate into SoCal and specifically concerned….
I’d like to use the great DotCom implosion as an example. When the Bay Area tech industry collapsed around 2001, there was a lot of unemployed tech workers in the Bay Area, an oversupply in the local markets, and there was a dent in the economy and real estate markets up there. 2001 in SD was hardly a recession-fested doom and gloom economy locally. In fact 2001 one was also known as a the great migration when many tech workers relocated to LA County and SD. During the Housing Bubble implosion that gripped SoCal, things weren’t nearly as impacted up in the Bay Area during the same period, because during that time the tech industry was more or less recovered and things were back to more or less the norm up there, where things traded based on one’s stock options and RSUs.
I think people are trying way to hard to connect macroeconomic things to what happens in the local economy and the local real estate market. Haven’t we learned, for example, that housing in say Seattle or SD or NorCal has very little to do with what goes on say in Upstate New York or DC? It seems folks are still underestimating the strength of the local SD markets, in that it’s not necessarily the strongest in tech, or finance, or tourism, or defense industry, or biotech. But because there is this mix, any cratering in one or more sectors is probably going to much more softer felt than in other geographical locations that have a unusually high concentration of one industry. All these talks about more tech companies moving more work into SD is good news from the local economy, because it’s just augmenting the sort of diversity we already have. If it all, tech was sort of the weak link down here.
