The rate increases give the fed plenty of ammo if the economy starts to cool. What would the local market look like if 30-year rates were 3.25% again?
I don’t see a trade war. China and EU will swallow their pride and give Trump a win.
China needs their trade with the USA more than vice versa. We export them a small amount of key goods plus ag stables. China however exports products that are also made elsewhere in Asia, and if it loses market share it may never come back, especially if it loses share to lower cost places like Vietnam.
China’s government really does not want mass factory layoffs + large increase in the price of US soy, pork, beef, and grain.
