The pro’s like Shiller have implied their “instinct” is that lows of between 400 to 600 on the S&P500 before this recession is over are a “distinct possibility.”
Yes, read that again. S&P500 is sitting at a grand today, so we are suggesting a possible 40% to 60% fall from here.
I believe we WILL see S&P500 go below 600…but probably not until sometime in the first three quarters of next year. Between now and the end of the year, anything goes. I predict another significant Fool’s Rally (which takes us higher than indexes reached this morning) sometime before year’s end, but that’s just a guess.
I recommend you go with 50% gold (gold ETF “GLD” or miners fund, or buy bullion) and you keep the rest in cash and wait for the fire sale prices on stocks.
Before the end of 2008, if you see the S&P500 go above 1100, then go short the index and ride her hard the way down to 600. Ahh, but that’s the crazy, risky move, so don’t try that play with more than 10%-25% of portfolio.
