The export number is key, as exports add directly to GDP. Many companies with surging earnings are reporting that exports are central to those earnings. Moreover, if imports do in fact become a little pricier, and American buy a few less imports, that would also add to GDP.
I suspect that, based on all current earnings reports, the GDP number will rise significantly upon revision.
Oh, to make jg’s “pattern recognition” a little trickier, note the 1.8% GDP number from Q3 ’06, and keep in mind not only that the 1.3% number is an intial estimate, but that the Q4 number went from an initial estimate of 3.5, to a revised estimate of 2.2, to a final value of 2.6.
There’s no doubt housing and debt burden are major drags on the US economy. Nonetheless, the world economy continues to grow at 4-5%. Two very powerful phenomena pulling in different directions, but which will ultimately prove stronger? I once believed housing would pull the US into a recession (and worse,) but that’s a terribly US-centric view. I’m no longer convinced a recession is inevitable (although housing is likely in for a very difficult run.)
