The current RCP numbers were the ones I looked at before I posted. I agree a lot can change. One of the differences, I think, is that Ron Paul has been through this before. He didn’t poll any better last time around. Republicans know who he is and have dismissed him. (I agree with those that say the press has been unfair to him, but it seems pretty unlikely that will change.)
I did see a poll this morning that I think was nationwide that had him at 14.5%. Everyone on the Republican side still in the race have had their day in the sun, and they all seem to be falling to the side except for Romney and Cain. I suspect Cain will fizzle shortly, when the absolute emptiness and silliness behind his 9-9-9 plan become obvious.
It’s not impossible that one of the others will rise again, though I think their popularity among Republicans, for those that have shown strength in the past (particularly Bachmann and Perry) is passionate but shallow. Someone else cold appear on the scene but the likely candidates have already said no. They have about 90 days to change their minds. (Chris Christie? I suspect whatever the reason he said no before will remain and he won’t change his mind.)
Barring new entrants in the race, for Paul supporters, it comes down to Romney v. Paul. And irrespective of Paul’s lack of respect from the press, he just doesn’t have the mass appeal that Romney has, as tepid as that appeal is. We’ll end up with <15% with passion for Paul and a > 30% plurality among Republicans with lukewarm support for Romney. I don’t see it turning out any other way.
