That is the billion dollar question. Not sure the governor asked it before instituting the SAH order.
Flatten the curve not the economy !
I think it will be more than a blip but not sure if it will be entirely recessionary since the economy was in decent shape to begin. The gubmint will start the money pump, too. I think the stock market will be undecided (long-term flat but volatile) for several months before coming back.
Interesting to note, I have a car loan I have been paying off for 3 years. The bank sent an email saying there would be no payments, no interest for 60 days. Things like that can help the general economy significantly. It make this more of a pause than a crash.
Two things I believe about the human race.
1) When left to be free, we are incredibly adaptable. I believe we can flex around this. That being said, I think the SAH order will hamper that significantly. If that doesn’t lift soon, could be recessionary.
2) People are social animals social distancing is not a sustainable solution. I get that we need to flatten the curve but I wasn’t joking when I said the cure is worse than the disease. People will eventually choose to be social (especially if the threat is seen only in the news and they don’t personally know people dying) either by explicit demands to get the rules reversed or by disobeying the rules, and let the virus run its course.
In the US, some 2.8 million people die every year (2017 figure). Worst case estimates, without social distancing, are that 50K – 200K people will die in the US from the virus. I am not sure what the economic repercussions are of an extra 50k – 200K dying would be but it doesn’t seem significant.
Don’t take that to mean that I think the economy is more important than people dying. Keep in mind, being economically strong helps fight the virus. Also, Recessions and depressions kill people, too.
Put all that together and I think people will get back to a pretty normal life, economically speaking, in a couple months and the economy will be a bit scarred but in-tact.
