Thanks sfobserver, nice to know there is someone else out there seeing it.
People who listen to the bulls stand to lose a lot of money, even if the number is only 20%-30%. Sure in SD (South Dakota) 20% ain’t much but with prices as they are in SD (San Diego), 20% is a family crushing number, 30% is simply devastation.
This forum is a funny sort, not many dare confront the old guard here, and maybe because of their well honed attack method, which is:
1) First discount any source of foreclosure data or information presented.
2) Come up with a poop soaked theory pulled strait from the anus to counter the data.
3) Try and shift the argument to their opinion or personal theory versus the discounted data (which they falsely discount)
4) Shift the burden of dis-proving their BS theory over to the data presenter.
5) Rely on aid from likeminded posters (anti-data squad).
Pretty smart actually, or crafty.
Contrary to the labels attached to those who counter their theories, I am not an Uber-Bear. I have bought, sold and developed my share of properties and made good money, you don’t do those things being a perma-bear.
This is an RE forum so I hold it to that standard and if there is a market development then I’d love to learn of it. But I like a degree of accuracy/data/confirmation.
If the things the realtor was posting were real then this would be big, really big for RE. If those things were happening it would be the biggest development in 18 months and you’d think it would be all over the news. It would be a huge development.
I don’t disagree for the sport. I want a clear picture of the RE market and if someone posts something that goes contrary to all information I can find then I push to discover if it’s true or BS. So when the realtor makes statements like this:
“Alot of this so called shadow inventory/REO pipeline is in process via short sales (i.e. already on the market) or undergoing loan modifications. ”
I want to know if there is any evidence to his words. So for those of you hanging your bull hats on loan mods:
• On Thursday, Treasury announced that 500,000 homeowners had since had their payments lowered on a trial basis, celebrating this as a milestone. But the report from the oversight panel directly challenged the administration’s characterizations. Most prominently, the panel had grave uncertainty about whether large numbers of the trial loan modifications — which typically run for three months — would successfully be converted to permanent terms.
• As of the beginning of September, only 1.26 percent of trial modifications that had made it through the three-month trial period had become permanent [..]
• As of Sept. 1, the Obama plan had produced 1,711 permanent loan modifications.
NATIONWIDE.
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If all 1711 had been in SD it still would not dent the foreclosure numbers. Reality is that CA is not a loan mod market; the degree of under-water indebtedness is just too great here and likely zero were from SD.
