PerryChase,
I dont believe the base year really matters and if I went back a few years more I know the results would be the same. I chose 2001 for a reason as there’s always a method to my madness though I dont always explain it upfront.
In most of SD there was very little new construction between 1990 and 1997. However, that changed dramatically in 1998. The higher priced asset classes (homes currently selling for $800K and up) I wanted to look at were mostly built starting around 1998. I chose 2001 to allow for these homes to start hitting the market after 2 years. If I start earlier, the homes currently over $1M are typically custom homes or beach properties for which it is much more subjective to say what a house sold then would currently sell for. For tract homes, it’s easy!
I dont necessarily disagree with Bugs as I don’t have the historical perspective he does. I just asked for some kind of data/supporting analysis arguing this point not the numbers that he used which appear to arbitrary.
I also dont know of any areas down close to 20% yet from the peak. As a note, I dont consider 1 home selling for $100K higher than anything else the peak. To me the peak is a price level where multiple homes were selling at a given price level not 1 lucky sale (or unlucky in the case of the buyer!).
