Thanks for that chart, I was also wondering why they started in 1996.
But the fact is: every housing downturn since WWII has caused a recesion. Leamer’s work. Check it out.
Yes, you can make money in the market when it goes sideways, but only if you are very lucky. How many of us bought gold in 2000? I was smart enough to load up on index funds in 1999, and did very well. But I didn’t think about gold.
Chris J, a trader, can make money on small moves in the market, catching the rallies which occur even in a bear market. I don’t know how to do that. So I stay away from bear markets.
asianautica, How will you make money in the stock market, when everything is falling? Commodities are a bubble too. Any risk you take on could be richly rewarded, or you could lose most, even all.
Recession will lower inflation and oil prices, so oil company profits will go down. Higher costs to extract from oil shale will eat into profits too. Zeal is what I follow for commodities, as it is their forte and I know little about it.
How many people clearly said in 1999, “This tech bubble won’t last, so I’m loading up on gold, oil, and real estate”. I doubt too many. iTulip’s guy is the only one I know. Goldbugs have been goldbugs for years, so it wasn’t a clear decision made to switch from stocks to gold. The point is: the next hot thing is not obvious. In a recession, all drops: oil, real estate, telecom, stocks. It all drops. Gold rises with inflation, so I don’t expect gold to rise just because we are in a recession.
Well, if you can figure out how to make money in a falling stock market, I will put you on my list of people to call for financial advice when this is all over.
