TG i appreciate and understand what you’re saying. it’s just the doing it. If i am completely honest with myself, I’d be upset with a 33-50% drop in house price soon after I moved in, even if I planned to live there the rest of my life. If the half million house slipped down to 350,000, which doesnt seem that unlikely if the mortgage market goes Tilt, and i have to sit 8 years until inflation blows like a built up steam kettle, I’d be irritated, and kind of ansxious till the whole morass really had hit bottom during the intital plunge. Yeah i could be philosophical, jus ride it out. I guess I would be sad to have missed th eopportunity to buy at (or in the vicinity of) a true bottom. I’m not saying time it perfectly. i’m just saying being int he ballpark of a true bottom.
Maybe I’m just buying over what my stomach can tolerate. if the house were 225 and fell 33%, I wouldn’t be upset over $60,000. That’s anumber I can grapple with. but 150,000 irritates me.
For you to mention “50% off the high” just well doesn’t seem to add anything for me. That high price is meaningless. means nothing. it was never a price anyone could really ever pay. So why refer to it at all in the calculus of determining whether one got a good deal. I must make a memo to myself never to do so int he future. Now 20 or 30 or 50% off a “fair price”, that’s a good deal. Just not sure we’re quite there yet. And the risks of wages exploding? I just don’t see it roughly on the horizon. I’m sure it’s out there somewhere, on the stormy seas of the future. But I just don’t see it now. Would your advice work out int he end? I bet it would. Do i want to take the ride to get there? I’m not sure I would like it. But then again, I hate rollercoasters and other rides involving sudden movements. Intellectually I think i shoudl get on the ride TG describes. But my stomach says no. I have in the past ignored my gut and been very wrong about things.
But man, this is a nice house.
it’s sometimes hard to tell if your’e actually seeing clouds or just have cataracts. While I cannot believe how low rates have gotten, doesn’t it seem like that’s the only thing keeping the price in place. the opposite thread title, “Rates shooting up like a rocket”, which is certainly out there, might be the better time to buy.
