[quote=temeculaguy][quote=Rich Toscano][quote=ctr70]1991-1996 was another time people though California real estate was finished and would never come back. I think 1996 was more like the bottom. But it was still really cheap in San Diego even up to 2000. If we say 2008 was year 1 of crash, that puts us at about late 1994 right now.[/quote]
If memory serves, 1996 was the nominal bottom and 1997 was the bottom in real terms. That’s in aggregate, of course it could differ by area.
Home prices peaked in late 05/early 06, so I don’t think it’s correct to use 2008 as year 1 of the crash. The 1990 market peaked in spring, so I’d say 2006 is equivalent to 1990. That puts us equivalent to 1995, for what it’s worth.[/quote]
I think rich is correct, but ctr’s observation of 2000 being still cheap, some areas had already began a steady climb by then. I remember 1998 in particular up here as being a banner year. I put money down in early 1998 or late 1997 and by the time the home was built in the summer of 1998, I could have sold it at a sizable profit (maybe 20-30%). I remember thinking I wouldn’t have been able to afford that house had I not locked in the price 8 months or so earlier, it was going up 5-10% per phase back then for new construction and the phases seemed to be every 2 months.
I also remember my house before that which I bought about 1992 and was underwater until about 1997, sold it to buy the bigger house mentioned above and pretty much broke even. Only to watch that house triple or quadruple in value over the next decade, which I still kick myself for selling it since it was rent nuetral even at it’s lowpoint, but i feared it would still go down (there was barely an internet then so I can only blame newspaper articles for my fear). But even today, as bad as things are, that old place is worth between double and triple what I sold it for in 1997 and it rents for more than double what the mortgage was (which would only have 11 years left on it today). God dammit!!!! I freaking hate this memory lane stuff, this is worse than my high school reuinion where the girls i blew off in high school turned out to be the hottest mid forties gals on the planet, with good jobs to boot. I’m going to bed.[/quote]
You are right Rich we peaked this time late 2005, but the market didn’t start the free fall until 2008. 2006 and 2007 prices were still holding up somewhat. Even in early 2007 there was still a some euphoria left. So we had kind of a holding pattern for 2 yrs after the peak this time. I think by the 2nd half of 1990 there was no euphoria left. So there may be some adjustments to year counting to see where we would theoretically be at in the 1990’s.
To temeculaguy…yes you are right prices were moving up in 2000, but I think SD was still super cheap in 2000 (esp. compared to OC/coastal LA/Bay Area). A friend of mine bought his 3,000sf house in Encinitas for around $400k in 2000…even with post crash prices that house has still well over doubled in 10 yrs. That was a really good price for that size and location then, still very cheap IMO. In 2002 prices really started going vertical.
