Temecula will be built out in 2013 if growth rate slows to 2%/yr. 8000 slots left, come get em while they’re cheap!
Once we’re built out, then what? The housing stock is, for the most part, fairly new and in good condition. Few apartments.
As long as average wage earners can still afford homes with traditional loan products I think the area will continue to hold steady until build-out. By 2013 we would have been in this housing downturn for 7 years (starting 2006). Most housing cycles are 7 years (of course this was the biggest and baddest boom and crash).
Not only am I calling a bottom now, I’m calling for a return to appreciation in 2013. Based on the fundamentals of course.
Of course, there are vacant homes (population moved to higher density rather than leave area), so we might need a couple of years to work through that inventory, so I’ll give a range of late 2013-early 2015 for appreciation.
The I-15 widening/car pool project in LE should be nearing completion and the 76 widening and straightening should be done. I doubt we’ll have any progress on the high speed rail but it’s fun to think about some minor development on it by 2015. That will only help to negate the “commuter discount” in the area going forward. Combine that with minor job growth and increased retail (to fill all the vacant strip malls now) and this place should be pretty awesome in a few years.
