Tax credits do not explain the differences in prices between two places that both benefit from the same tax break. In fact, the higher end San Diego areas were ineligible for the tax credit because of income restrictions.
It’s not spin from realtors, look at rich’s graphs, it is now at it’s historical norm. Some San Diego county places have become less affordable because they were “way out” places 10 or 20 years ago but now they are no longer “way out”. I remember when I lived in Tierrasanta and some friends didn’t want to come visit me because I lived in the sticks. I remember Encinitas being considered another time zone, a place you got gas on the way to L.A. They benefited because the population came to them, today’s “way out” place may be tomorrows hot spot. 200k combined income gives you plenty of options, maybe not every house in every town, but probably most houses in most towns. The reason they can’t go buy the best house in the best town is that the other buyers making 200k combined aren’t buying thier first house, they are moving up with the profits from their first house, or they saved a lot over the years.
When something lasts more than 20 years, it’s not because of this or that, it is the norm. I left San Diego 20 years ago because R/E seemed overpriced. I agree that it still seems overpriced, but in those 20 years, through up and down cycles, nothing ever changed much. That makes me think that it wont make any big changes anytime soon.
One other note, if you look at the population of the county and the city in the last 50-60 years, the area outside of city limits has seen the most growth. It lends more validity to the “way out there” theory.
1950 city 333k county 556k
1960 city 573k county 1 mil
1970 city 700k county 1.35 mil
1980 city 875k county 1.8 mil
1990 city 1.1mil county 2.5 mil
2000 city 1.2mil county 2.8 mil
2009 city 1.4mil county 3.2 mil
The city’s population grew 4x in that span but the area outside city limits grew 6x. In 1950 2/3 of the population lived inside the city, now it’s far less than half, it wasn’t until 1980 that the tipping point was reached when more people lived outside the city than inside it. In 1980, highway 15 had stop signs. This explains somewhat why many people have memories of plumbers and teachers buying nice places in Poway or Carlsbad during their childhood, because in 1960, there were only 427k people dividing up everything outside of the city limits. Today there are 1.8 million people dividing it up. That is a market force. If the county population ever hits 6 million, 30 years from now, people will wonder why Santee got so expensive. Actually since they built the 52, that started to happen already. Tell your friends to take their 200k and buy a place that they feel is in the path of progress. 200k does not make the world your oyster, you still have to plan a little, but it can be done.
