Sticking my neck out, I’m calling a short-lived rally.
The $31T figure is equities. The total decline will end up being higher. Wealth is going up in smoke. There’s $20T of fictitious value in ABS/MBS. $50T CDS market is bust. Nobody knows the scope of what’s out there, bad obligations, insolvent balance sheets. My guess? Global equivalent of $100T will have gone away when all is said and done. Let’s be optimistic and call it $70T.
To put this in perspective, US GDP is about $14T. That’s the sum total of everything bought, sold and traded by everyone in America for an entire year. The global economy will outright lose the equivalent of 5 years of US economic output in the next 2-3 years. That’s just massive. It’s huge, and it’s bad. Right now, it’s a big game of Russian Roulette to see which companies and countries take the bullet.
So, here’s what I think: sdrealtor’s right — sales are up right now. That’s the SoCal housing market in November 2008. The activity is understandable. Lots of bubble dollars still floating around with nowhere to park them. Not even in the bank anymore. And let’s face it, prices are relatively low in certain areas if you assume normal levels of employment, income, rents, etc.
The others are right long-term. The economy is in severe contraction at this point, massive layoffs, balance sheet failures, painful widespread economic dislocation and re-structuring in the next 1-2 years ahead. It’s creating tremendous uncertainty for those trying to run businesses and balance budgets for their organization. We’re all hunkering down. There’s simply no economic growth on the horizon to support another run-up in housing.
What we’re witnessing right now is a short-term rally on the way down to a fundamentally different economic position.
