Steve, I didn’t comment on the population change, because I know that immigrants and births are causing population to increase. BUT, San Diego adults ARE LEAVING at the rate of 44,000 annually. This is a start reversal, because we used to have more than that moving INTO San Diego. The guess among Census Bureau was these 44,000 people are going to Riverside, Inland Empire, or other states, anywhere where the cost of living is less.
There are 8 homes to choose from for every buyer, based on current sales and inventory. Got this from a realtor. I think June sales were 3,000, and with inventory at 23K, that’s about how it works out.
If you enter the MLS data into Excel, you notice that high end was 8.5% of sales last year, and is 10% of sales this year. High end is still Hot. I am puzzled how you can disagree with data. ” I don’t think that the current figures are skewed by more sales of higher-end homes.” There’s nothing to think about, it’s a fact. The low end got soft first, because those buyers got squeezed out by rising interest rates and rising prices. Look, you could get an entry level house 2 years ago for say, $1500/month; today, with higher prices and higher interest rates, that same entry level house might cost $1900/month. I made up the numbers, but the point is made.
Are you a realtor, Steve? If you are, I shouldn’t have to explain the housing prices to you. I can’t be everyone’s gopher.
There is a housing shortage for cheap housing, like $120K houses, and apartments costing $300 – $700/month.
One last comment: I can’t waste my time anymore repeating stuff that I’ve written about multiple times. Go back through the threads, and read the Bubble Primer, and then come here with new questions. I can’t be everyone’s gopher or personal secretary. I am only interested in discussing new ideas, not rehashing all the old stuff. If you think housing prices will level off, go buy a bunch, and stock up! If you think they won’t go any lower, go buy downtown condos. There are some great discounts out there. Take advantage, Steve. “It’s a buyer’s market”, after all….
