[quote=spdrun]Skelldumps have happened at least 4 times in the lifetimes of anyone over 30. 1987, 1991, 2001, and 2008. A dump where skells get burnt and the smart profit isn’t a once in a lifetime thing, more of a once in a decade thing.[/quote]
1985-1991 was know as the Savings and Loan crisis… Again, loose lending standards, and loans available to less than credit worthy entities.
2001 was hardly a real estate “correction”…. That was when the .dot com bursted AND a 9/11 terrorist attack….The bulks of any sort of RE “correction” was in the Bay Area tech heavy location, and even there it wasn’t anywhere close to the 40-50% off some of you think happened…. I was there, and homes weren’t selling at 40-50% off except maybe east palo alto…. It’s was more like this:
Again, my guess is that steep discount across the board seems to happen when banks get crazy with their loans and offers it to the most unqualified people that have no business of borrowing/buying…..I don’t think we’re there yet in the current cycle…. Trump/GOP might change that if they deregulate banks… But, it doesn’t appear to have happened yet… Loan standards still look pretty strict. And if that were to happen, I’m thinking we’ll get crazy people with no concept of moral hazard doing the exact same thing again…overpaying even MORE for homes they really can’t afford….
The question is whether you (and kev’s) strategy of trying to time the markets every 10 years or so and put all your eggs into those precisely timed entry points you and kev think is so obvious will benefit you more than doing the long slow trickle thing that most other people do to build wealth, essentially missing out on any sort of opportunity that happens in between, which tends to be longer periods of time I think. You and kev might be one of the exceptions that do better…Or you might be like most others that tried market timing and did considerably worse. Only time will tell. Your life and your nest egg….
