“So we need to improve battery preformance, we already know that. Just because what we have now isnt the best, doesnt mean that that things wont get better in the future. Hell, the author in your piece even identified which ones would be better”
Yes yes, theoretically, we can get through this. Theoretically lots of things can happen. Theoretically, we can draw up plans to have world peace, end famine and live in harmony with nature. Theoretically there should be a flourishing democracy in Iraq. The world I live in theoretical things rarely happen.
The big question is time. Can work the bugs out of and deploy a viable alternative to the masses before prices incapacitate us. Personally I think, no. I’ve been watching this issue for some time and have heard all the theoretical things that were supposed to happen at different prices that did not. Not saying it can’t happen, just that IMO it is unlikely at this point.
“You left out my favorite part of that quote, the next paragraph.
‘The alternative battery technologies of ZnAir and NaNiCl are not resource constrained and offer potentially
higher performance than LiIon. Research and industrialisation of Electrified Vehicles must also prioritise these alternative battery technologies.'”
Well that is nice, but what are all the prototype electric cars testing with?
Finally the USA has alot more natural gas and coal then it does oil,
I’m not sure where you get your misconceptions regarding gas and coal but that is what they are misconceptions.
Simply put, by 2010 Conventional Gas production can be half of what is today in North America, falling from 20 Tcf/a to 10 Tcf/a. Jean doesn’t hesitate to say that shortages will soon occur in this part of the world. Production already peaked in 2001, declining 5% up to 2005, so a downward trend is already there, but will that cliff unfold? Unconventional Gas production has been rising too slowly to avoid the peak, can it avoid the cliff?
The simple fact is these discussions needed to take place 20 years ago. Now we are here and airlines going under, truckers are protesting, food rationing in the US and food riots in third world countries all because of the high price of oil. All we have is a myriad of half-baked plans that could theoretically work. It looks to me like we are putting all our money on black 17 and spinning the wheel. When we should be having discussions that *gasp* every human might not be able to have their own personal transport machine. In the mean time j6packs are stuck in the suburbs with no mass transit, negative equity and SUVs that are approaching worthless in the very near future and a questionable job future
At this rate it’s not looking good to avoid serious societal disruptions. It’s all about the decline rates… Hopefully geology will be kind.
As scarier notion to think about is: The US is the primary competitor to China strategically in energy. Everybody else can be coopted, so China has to consider the costs of what happens when the stress with the US comes.
At some time, which will be fairly soon, the value of a prosperous U.S. to China (buying Chinese exports) will be outweighed by its competition for raw resources. The Chinese internal market is developing extremely rapidly, replacing the need for US. A poorer US would mean a more prosperous China.
Now I’m off to the gym, theoretically I should lose 25 lbs by the end of summer;)
