So now we’re talking in 30-year holding periods? How many people do you know in your generation who you think will hold for that long?
Let’s say you buy the $1,000,000 at peak and it depreciates to $500,000, then continues on at the average 3%. $350k @ 3% compounded over 30 years is what it is (about $850k in 2025). The 3% average rate of increase over the last 50 years (it’s actually only about 2.5%) is comprised of all the highs and lows along the way. That’s what “Average” means. It would only change if we are now facing that “New Paradigm”, which so far is proving to be a rather spectacular bust.
Nobody can know the future, but based on past performance the $850k in 2025 at least has a basis, whereas the $1.4m does not.
If you’re arguing that this time is different and we are now facing the New Paradigm where the long term will reset at this much higher rate then we’d all love to see what you’re basing that on.
You’re apparently in the business of giving advice. May we assume that you use data and analyses to back that advice up?
