So I guess everyone should jump on schizo because he simply quoted official statistics. While he posts a 100% valid statistic there are a bunch of quotes that talk about shadow inventory and such yet nobody can come up with a hard fact. I saw the Mr Mortgage video… interesting but I feel he does take liberties with the data… maybe he is right though but only time will tell. I am not saying there is or is not shadow inventory, or that we do not have an inventory overhang. Yet the guy (shizo) simply posted something that is 100% validated.
Does anyone here recall people crowing about 30k inventory levels. Some of you did not post here back then but some of you did.
How bout in 2006 when we hit 23k inventory? Everyone was pretty wild about 30k being the next stop in 07. No? How bout 08? No well it must be there but maybe it is hidden… Not so sure I agree… Not so sure it really matters… The point is that no I don’t believe we are any closer to the bottom then most of you but I d
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Look I don’t buy in that we are even close to a bottom as well but jeez… the data is simply gathered and posted. Whether you like the data or not it is what it is which is a valid point. If someone wants to dig up more valid data then have at it.
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The bottom line is that last year at this time Scripps had about 125-130 active listings and it barely is at 100 this spring. Do most of the properties suck? Yes they do. I will say that I am VERY uninspired by alot of the inventory out there.
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Schizo my read on the inventory reduction (rather then refuting your data I will try to rantionally analyze it) is that as previously mentioned by HLS, many non distressed homeowners are now sitting out. They have realized it is game over and they will sit out this housing cycle for as long as it takes. As more of the market segment becomes distressed we may see a normalization of inventory which will pretty much seek an equilibrium maybe at the 15-20k levels depending on the time of year. One thing to note though, while inventory is lower by 3 or 3. whatever percent, yoy sales are still lower by more then that so you do have a net INCREASE in homes still staying on the market, you see what I am saying? Similarly we are now finally seeing the slowly grinding wheels of the new home buildouts stopping and that will also lead to less new homes which then lead to helping a consumption of inventory. Finally there is the give up factor…basically people throwing in the towel, abandoning the homes, not even trying to list to sell.
There may indeed be banks holding back properties in CERTAIN neighborhoods but not in any nice neighborhoods.
So schizo… I think it is good to keep monitoring the stats… Don’t get fooled though… especially next spring where I am thinking we will get yet another bump in activity but that will be (at least to me) the calm before the second wave…. just my guess…
