Since I’m the only one not ignoring you (at least for the moment) I’ll keep going. There is really no such thing as a “housing market” beyond the theoretical. Buyers are not “the housing market” they are individual parties acting in their own self interests just like sellers.
I never heard a single buyer say they were buying because of what Lerrah or NAR said. Plenty of people dont look to realtors either and do their own research. I never heard NAR predictions of 15% gains either nor did I hear that at any company meetings I went to. Maybe they were out there but working for one of if not the largest brokerage in the country we never heard any of that. In fact, I think the NAR, CAR and most realtors were shocked at what happened which far exceeded even the most optimistic predictions.
The car dealer tells you about resale value, he tells you why his BMW is a better investment than the other guys Audi, he tells you the $500 seat protection is a good investment not that its a $5 can of scotchguard, he tells you the undercarriage protection is money well spent as is the extended warranty plan. It happens in every industry. Stockbroker tout what they are told from above which is in the mother ships best interests and not necessarily the individual client.
As for high transaction costs on a percentage basis they are actually reasonable. Have you ever purchased life insurance? Do you know that better than 50% of 1st year premiums are paid out as commissions. How about software sales? I was paid 20 to 40% of the 1st year licensing fees on 3 year contracts for software sold in the 6 figures.
Economists like you live in the theoretical world. I live on Planet Earth with my feet on the ground. The economists put out broad predictions and have no accountability. I provide my clients specific actionable information and advice.
Like I said, there are plenty of smart, well educated people in the world and you are among them. That at $1.95 will get you a cup of coffee in this world. Money talks, BS walks. How much did you make knowing about the bubble and operationalizing it profitably?
