You, sir, seem perfectly willing to put your hard-earned, after-tax dollars into an investment idea which you: A) know so little about that you cannot even be bothered to conduct a 30-second internet search upon price history (i.e., “always used to be $20 – $30”); B) have not the first clue as to how to monetize your theory (i.e., the mechanics of shorting oil); C) reach out to people whom you do not know for investment advice.
I suspect that if responders argued for you to buy real estate on the moon, you’d be imprinted with that notion, not unlike a baby duck would to a dog after it lost its mother.
Commodities prices react to changes in three areas: supply of the asset, demand for the asset, and the supply of the currency in which it is quoted (dollars in America). You have argued, by asertion only, for a change in the demand for oil. You have neglected to think about the other two areas.
You, sir, are a fool. Please park your money in a FDIC savings account. Granted, it will be eaten away over time by negative real interest rates, but at least this process will take years. Your money will last only hours in the commodities market.
