Setting your baseline at 2000 is incorrect. Prices in SD started appreciating noticeably in 1997, well before most of the rest of the country. While I do not know the interior condition of the houses in question, I did look at some fairly nice houses in mid-MM around 1995 which were in the 170’s for about 1700sft (in neighborhoods which are considerably nicer than the Flanders area, or were back then anyway), and noone was knocking down the doors to buy them. Therefore I would set your baseline at $100/sft and add your normal appreciation adjustment to that. You can now buy townhouses in Carmel Valley for $400/sft, so for houses in MM to be similarly priced seems absolutely ridiculous IMO. However I do not want to argue now, let’s just check back and update this thread 5-7 years from now. Do believe me however when I tell you the last downcycle lasted from 1990-1997 and the proceding runup wasn’t anything like the one we are coming off of. Good luck, especially if you go ahead and buy now.
