Self driving cars are closer than we think. Self driving Ubers might not make many of us give up cars, but think about:
1. Elderly people who make 1-2 car trips per week and 1000 miles a year.
2. Married couples in apartments who have 2 cars but only one off-street spot.
3. People who walk/bike/transit to work, but have a car for errands
4. College students who keep their high school car at their parents’ house to use for visits/summer only.
The point is, there are many marginal car owners who can realisticly give them up once there are self-driving Ubers. Rich people, people with children, people who do a lot of home improvement work, people who love driving, etc would be the groups who wouldn’t give up private car ownership.
Nonetheless, I could see in the medium term future the number of privately owned cars go down by more than 25% in San Diego. The average private car is parked 23 hours a day and needs an average of two parking spots. There is really some amazing potential to use urban and inner-suburban land in more productive ways as private car ownership declines. The self-driving cars can be on the road 18 hours, and then sleep/recharge at night when demand is low in a solar powered garage off the 8 in El Cajon.
