sduuude, fascinating article by Cagan, and much more honest than his more recent work. He has data showing that San Franciso, LA, and SD home prices turned negative in certain areas in 2005. He was ahead of his time! I am interested in your comment about Japanese real estate: since their market is turning up, it would be a way to invest in an non-US asset and diversify out of dollars. Are there any funds which invest in Japan real estate? Or did we miss the bottom of Japan real estate, and the price is so high again?