sduude, I have posted my data on this forum before, multiple times, so those who like to skim threads, don’t expect me to rewrite it. You are free to search for it. Why are you so angry? Do you own a house?
If you can’t find my posts, check Jim Klinge and Bob Casagrand’s sites; they write clearly that prices stopped rising in 2004, that we are back to 2004 prices in many neighborhoods, and that to me shows a 10% decline. If not, what would you call a reversion to 2004 prices? That part was a guess, so you’d have to correct me: if prices are back to 2004 levels in certain neighborhoods, how much of a drop is that?
The median might show we are down 2%, but the median is a lagging indicator. Lagging by 2 years I am finding out. The Case-Shiller index you present starts in 2004, so it doesn’t give us much historical data. If you look at the price of each individual home, it is back to 2004 prices in many cases. It is the shift in distribution of homes sold that is causing the median to rise. I’ve explained this many times.
So each individual home is worth most likely the 2004 value. I still predict a 50% minimum nominal drop, and I would be wrong if the Fed lowers interest rates. But who will buy the new mortgages at at time when investors are scared to death of real estate? I suspect in 5 years the banks will want 20% down and proof of income, which will eliminate the possiblity of prices higher than 7 x wages. We have a long way to drop, and I stand by my 50% drop.
I can see you are angry; probably you have a lot to lose if my prediction comes true. But please try to keep your temper in check. I’m just presenting the data and my vision for the future, not causing this bubble to be created.
In all of history, every asset bubble reverted to its prebubble price. Every single one. Instead of yelling at me, prepare yourself. Sell your house and rent.
