sdrealtor, you’re right – for the foreseeable future – and it’s been the case for many years – Detroit lives and dies with the US Auto Industry. We don’t really know what the very long term holds for Detroit, although it’s not nearly as favorable as San Diego, that’s for sure.
But where San Diego is concerned, I would argue that our city DOES in fact live and die with the real estate industry in the short term, which I’ll define as the next several years. Despite the fact that San Diego’s economy is no longer identified with any single industry – as it was with defense and the military 15 years ago – our over-reliance on real estate will make it seem like death once this downturn picks up steam. Real estate is that pervasive today.
To give you an anectodotal example, I was thinking of the neighbors in my condo complex. Title executive across the hall. Developer executive on one side. Guy that reps for a high-end blinds manufacturer on the other side. The developer that built the building owns a unit further down the hall. And a few with no connection to real estate sprinkled in. I count among my friends several real estate agents, mortgage brokers, etc. and, of course, several people outside of the industry. But I’d guess that at LEAST 1/3 of the people I know in San Diego have employment that is directly tied to real estate and that’s not even including the people I know in the banking industry, which itself is very real estate-dependent.
Over the next several years we’re going to find out just how diversified San Diego’s economy really is… and I’m betting it’s going to be an eye opener.
